The four most dangerous words in investing might just be: “this time is different.”

In fact, Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff wrote an entire book on the topic in 2009, carefully using data to show that most bubbles, crashes, and recoveries throughout history follow similar patterns despite seeming novel to the participants. The book, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, called attention to the environments that often preceded crashes and allowed bubbles to gain traction.1 These market conditions typically included excess liquidity, loosening financial regulation and lending standards, waves of financial innovation, and a boom…

Innovation is all around us, and here in the Bay Area, we feel its presence more acutely than most. We live in an area that is a hub of technology and science fueled by world-class universities, a diverse workforce with its concomitant variety of skill sets and perspectives, and a critical mass of prominent technology companies. When we zoom out to a national and global perspective, the landscape of scientific and technological leadership is not as clearly centered in the US. Attention has been shifting east with the rise of China and its state-sponsored commitment to next-generation technology, including artificial…

Owning stocks has historically been financially rewarding, assuming you can tolerate the short-term swings in price, and stick around to benefit from the longer-term growth of the underlying businesses. We use stock funds as a foundation for our client portfolios specifically so they can benefit from that long-term exposure to growth, and ensure their savings maintain purchasing power over time.

Saving for and building an investment portfolio for the future is a dynamic process. Along the way, spending needs and unexpected circumstances require decisions to sell and re-allocate stocks and funds. When and why you sell relates to the performance…

In his 1926 novel The Sun Also Rises, Hemingway’s characters have the following exchange:
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”[1]

Our lives are full of tipping points, and change isn’t always smooth and linear — especially in the short term as we are living through it. Response to certain crises can take much longer to develop than we usually assume, and when it coalesces, change can occur much faster than we had anticipated.

Results from shareholder resolution votes pressuring oil and gas industry giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron surprised investors this…

When the pandemic arrived last March, businesses nationally were forced to shut down or limit operations. Many employees were able to transition to remote work arrangements, but millions lost their jobs with no clear timeline for return. As we emerge from the pandemic in the US, the recovery of these jobs and a return to full employment is one of the most closely tracked trends — and it is sending mixed signals.

Market action over the last month has seen the S&P 500 bouncing sideways with weekly declines and recoveries that reflect investor uncertainty. In addition to employment trends, the…

In the United States, COVID and mask mandates appear to be on the downswing, while volatility and inflation are on the upswing. Yesterday’s CDC announcement marked a major milestone, but the progress toward post-pandemic normalcy was already largely priced into the market.1 Data showing a near-term uptick in inflation was not. The market reacted by retreating from recent highs, with the S&P 500 dropping early in the week and finishing with a net decline of -1.4% by Friday.

The economy has recovered substantially from the lows of last year, but this week offered reminders that there are risks to market…

A few weeks ago we wrote on the topic of context, and examined market returns across time periods ranging from a single week, to the past year, and stretching out further to a three-year view. Each period told a different story and offered differing insights on the recent path of economic growth. Last week we reflected on difficulties facing the global supply chain, again zooming out from the current moment of high lumber prices to understand the root causes that stem from the housing crash more than a decade ago.

This week, a similar exercise in zooming out can offer…

Among the more surreal chapters of the pandemic was the toilet paper shortage in the spring of 2020. Shelves were barren as people stockpiled in the early days of the lockdown, and hot tips were shared among friends on where to find this elusive staple. This episode revealed more than just irrational desperation; it also highlighted shifting consumption patterns as life moved from offices to homes, and the delicate balance of supply and demand.

Since last spring, the shortages of toilet paper have been resolved and the US economy has made substantial strides toward recovery. The Bureau of Economic Analysis…